Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1490 LANDED 12:26 PM ET, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 1490 · DAL → SDF

took off 9:59 AM CT · landed 12:26 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.26 in

SDF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1490 · DAL → SDF

Odds over time