Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 1498 · MDW → BOS
departs 12:10 PM CT · arrives 3:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.