WN 1511 · OAK → DEN

departs 2:35 PM PT · arrives 6:03 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

91% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1511 · OAK → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?