Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1522
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1522 · RNO → AUS
departs 10:20 AM PT · arrives 3:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
RNO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.