Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 1526 · SMF → SAN
departs 9:05 PM PT · arrives 10:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.