Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1557
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 1557 · HOU → OAK
departs 4:40 PM CT · arrives 6:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.