Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 1578 · HOU → CRP
departs 10:10 AM CT · arrives 11:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at CRP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to CRP?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CRP that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at HOU that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into CRP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
CRP (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.