WN 1586 · DEN → ELP

departs 9:35 PM MT · arrives 11:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±9 pts +33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1586 · DEN → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?