WN 1643 · ISP → BWI

took off 6:06 PM ET · expected to land 6:58 PM ET (scheduled 5:45 PM ET → 7:12 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from ISP are often late

↓ ISP usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ISP (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

BWI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1643 · ISP → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?