WN 1675 · MDW → MCO

took off 12:42 PM CT · expected to land 3:48 PM ET (scheduled 12:25 PM CT → 4:02 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1675 · MDW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?