WN 1685 · BWI → RSW

departs 8:41 PM ET · arrives 11:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.17 in

RSW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1685 · BWI → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?