Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1714
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1714 · HOU → SAT
departs 10:25 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.52 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.