WN 1721 · SXM → MCO

departs 3:06 PM AST · arrives 6:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SXM

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SXM (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1721 · SXM → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?