Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1761 · DEN → BUF
departs 7:05 PM MT · arrives 12:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.