WN 1771 · PHX → SAT

departs 8:20 AM MT · arrives 12:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1771 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?