Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1796
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 1796 · HOU → MSY
departs 7:50 AM CT · arrives 9:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at HOU that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.