Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1859 · SFO → DAL
departs 3:10 PM PT · arrives 8:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 10/3 41%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 57% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.