Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 1863 · SJC → LAS
departs 5:05 PM PT · arrives 6:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.