WN 1864 · MEM → TPA

departs 4:50 PM CT · arrives 7:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1864 · MEM → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?