WN 1865 · ELP → AUS

departs 9:15 PM MT · arrives 12:01 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ELP (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1865 · ELP → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?