Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1890
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 1890 · GEG → SMF
departs 7:00 PM PT · arrives 8:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from GEG are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
GEG (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.