WN 1941 · LAS → SMF

took off 10:29 AM PT · expected to land 11:32 AM PT (scheduled 9:33 AM PT → 11:11 AM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
53%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1941 · LAS → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?