WN 1951 · PHX → AUS

took off 9:36 AM MT · landed 1:36 PM CT (scheduled 8:50 AM MT → 1:12 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1951 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUS?