WN 1954 · GSP → BWI

departs 7:15 AM ET · arrives 9:06 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BWI that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.11 in

BWI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1954 · GSP → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?