WN 1964 · HNL → KOA

departs 5:16 PM HT · arrives 6:20 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1964 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?