WN 2004 · ATL → TPA

departs 5:41 PM ET · arrives 7:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ 5pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.29 in

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2004 · ATL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?