Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2054
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2054 · HOU → SLC
departs 8:05 PM CT · arrives 10:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.52 in
SLC (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.