Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2056 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

WN 2056 · OAK → SAN

departs 9:20 AM PT · arrives 10:55 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Sundays in October are usually busier than average

↓ 9am departures from OAK are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2056 · OAK → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?