Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2086 · DAL → SAT
departs 5:55 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.