Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2099
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2099 · LAS → RDU
departs 5:20 PM PT · arrives 12:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.