Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

WN 2104 · ICT → LAS

departs 12:45 PM CT · arrives 1:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICT

Weather at each end

ICT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2104 · ICT → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?