WN 210 · PHX → SAT

took off 1:18 PM MT · expected to land 5:00 PM CT (scheduled 12:45 PM MT → 5:04 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 210 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?