Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2154 · ABQ → SAT
departs 2:25 PM MT · arrives 5:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
ABQ is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SAT that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.