Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2157 · JAX → BNA
departs 9:10 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 62%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.42 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.