WN 215 · BWI → MSY

departs 1:01 PM ET · arrives 2:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ 1pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.17 in

MSY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.78 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 215 · BWI → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?