WN 2166 · AUS → OAK

departs 10:26 PM CT · arrives 12:14 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2166 · AUS → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?