WN 2168 · RIC → BNA

took off 12:42 PM ET · expected to land 1:01 PM CT (scheduled 12:11 PM ET → 1:07 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

LIVE

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ 12pm departures from RIC are usually not late

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.94 in

BNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2168 · RIC → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?