WN 2188 · PHL → STL

took off 11:24 AM ET · expected to land 12:18 PM CT (scheduled 11:15 AM ET → 12:41 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from PHL are often late

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.14 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2188 · PHL → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?