Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2203
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2203 · AUS → LAS
departs 8:05 AM CT · arrives 8:50 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.