Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2229
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2229 · ORF → BNA
departs 6:20 AM ET · arrives 7:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORF that day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.08 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.