WN 2230 · KOA → SMF

took off 10:12 AM HT · expected to land 5:34 PM PT (scheduled 10:00 AM HT → 6:01 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ KOA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2230 · KOA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?