Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 225 · SAN → SMF
departs 9:50 PM PT · arrives 11:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.