Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 240
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 240 · ATL → STL
departs 1:25 PM ET · arrives 2:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.96 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.