Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2431 · PHX → AUS
departs 9:35 PM MT · arrives 1:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.