Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 2438 · PWM → BWI
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 1:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at PWM that day
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.