Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2454 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

WN 2454 · LGA → DEN

departs 6:55 AM ET · arrives 9:05 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from LGA are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2454 · LGA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?