Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2456
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2456 · LGA → DEN
departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 7:30 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.