WN 2461 · MSY → MCI

departs 9:35 PM CT · arrives 11:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

↓ MSY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.83 in

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2461 · MSY → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?