Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2475 · BNA → LAS
departs 2:40 PM CT · arrives 4:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.