Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 2498 · LGA → HOU
departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 4:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.